Random Wednesday Morning Thoughts

• It finally dawned on me that this Supreme Court battle over same sex marriage is only about time.  The battle is already over. Here's why. The Supreme Court is not deciding whether gay marriage should be legal or illegal. No. The states arguing against gay marriage say that each state should have the right to define marriage. They just don't want the federal government to have any say in that. Even those states agree that a state can make gay marriage legal. So even if those conservative states win at the Supreme Court, the status quo will remain and eventually every State will vote to recognize same sex marriage. 
• But the Supreme Court could make that time frame speed up to right now. The Court is actually deciding (1) whether there is a constitutional right to a same sex marriage which, if so, means the states could not refuse to issue same sex marriage licenses, and (2) If there is no such right, must those states who do not wish to issue same sex marriage licenses also refuse to recognize the legal status of a same sex marriage that occurs in a different state when that couple moves into that state.  If anti-same sex marriage states like Texas win on #1, but lose on #2, it will just move the inevitable along quicker than a win on both issues. 
• Side note: Those States who argue against there being a constitutional right to same sex marriage argued yesterday that if there were one, there could also be one for polygamist marriage and other types of unconventional relationships.  You know what? The position of states like Texas already is that polygamist marriages could be legal. If you say that marriage should only be defined by states (if some want gay marriage, fine -- if not, that's fine too), you must also say that a state would have the right to define marriage in a way that includes polygamists. It's all up to each and every state.
• All that being said, my prediction: The Supreme Court will find a constitutional right to gay marriage on issue #1 (which makes issue #2 moot.) 
• Why? The pro-gay marriage folks need five votes. We know they have four absolute locks. But there are four who are probably against it. That leaves Justice Kennedy as the only true wild card. (But of those four who probably won't find a constitutional right to same sex marriage, you know in the back of their minds they are thinking, "Do I forever want to be remembered as being on the wrong side of history?" And do you think they were influenced yesterday by the protestor in open court who screamed, “The Bible teaches that if you support gay marriage you will burn in hell for eternity”?)
• But if you want to predict how Justice Kennedy will vote, read this review of oral arguments by Slate's Dahlia Lithwick (who is beyond great). Kennedy is a great fan of dignity. (He wrote this when the Court struck down the Defense of Marriage Act: “It seems fair to conclude that, until recent years, many citizens had not even considered the possibility that two persons of the same sex might aspire to occupy the same status and dignity as that of a man and woman in lawful marriage”.) And he's mentioned dignity in other opinions. And yesterday, at oral arguments, one of the government lawyers arguing against same sex marriage was dumb enough to say this to him:  “[M]arriage was never intended to be dignity bestowing.” Kennedy immediately took issue with that. It's over.
• WBAP's Brian Estridge referred to the oral arguments yesterday at the Supreme Court as the court receiving "public comment". 
• I caught the opening of Hannity last night and Geraldo Rivera had planted himself right in the middle of a crowd in Baltimore and was doing his best to try and get punched when they crowded him to get on TV. He knew that would be great TV.
• Greg Abbott's order to monitor the federal military exercises with the Texas Guard is beyond belief. Either he believes in the silly conspiracy theory or he wants the vote of the conspiracy theorists and is willing to publically admit it.  But by ordering our troops to be "monitored" isn't he not supporting them? 
• When I wasn't paying attention, the death total from from Nepal earthquake went from 500 to over 5,000.
• The major league baseball game today in Baltimore where the Orioles will play the White Sox is CLOSED to the public. It will be played in an empty stadium.  Hey, will there be a PA announcer? And this is a great chance for bits.  How about show the dot race? What about a mascot running around looking confused as to where everyone is?  Have a concession guy go up and down the aisles yelling out "Popcorn! Peanuts!"