11.06.2020

It's Friday -- Let's Get Out Of Here

at 2:30 PM

Random Friday Morning Thoughts

 
  • Breaking at 7:50 a.m.: Pennsylvania finally has Biden in the lead. 

  • About four hours ago, Georgia finally tipped towards Biden. Fox News reporting . . . 

  • But with all this focus on Pennsylvania and Georgia over the last two days, they might be just gravy on what now appears to be an "overwhelming" landslide. If Biden holds onto Arizona (still tight there), those two states aren't even needed.  It would end up 306 to 232. Flashback: 

  • It's over. 
  • What kind of award do you guys think I'll win for being the Best Political Prognosticating Expert in the Southwest Proper? Do I have to apply somewhere, or will a truck just show up with a bunch of trophies?
  • Trump's first appearance yesterday was a sad and embarrassing for him. He had the tone and words of a defeated man. Quick thoughts: 

    • First, that's not my Liberally Lean spin. The Trump-friendly New York Post lambasted him immediately afterwards.

    • If he thinks there is election fraud, prove it. Heck, I want to see it! But he can't. Everyone knows he can't. That's why this is, uh, "so sad."

    • He's been planning this strategy for months. Every time he opened his mouth he would say that if he lost it would only be because of fraud. We knew this was exactly what he would say if he lost. 
    • He's really a simple man led by a simple proposition. For a reason I'll never understand, he sees every moment as having a winner or a loser. And there's nothing worse to him than being branded a loser. That's why he's trying to brand himself as the victim because that makes him, in his eyes, not a "loser." This isn't hard to understand. 
    • As for his disciples, why do you  find it so hard to believe that a guy, who Hillary beat by 3 million votes four years ago, lost the popular vote and the electoral college this time? 
    • Democrats are so good at fraudulent voting they failed to take control of the Senate and lost seats in the House? Republicans performed fantastically. It's Trump who did not. 
  • Fox News has a moment of truth coming: When do they finally make the call and project Joe Biden as the next President of the United States?  Or is there a chance they don't? Make no mistake about it, Rupert Murdoch, as hard as it is to believe, is a newsman at heart. Yes, he has his pseudo-entertainment and money-making stars of Hannity, Carlson, and a Ingraham but he is a newsman. And the news section, although decimated with departures over the last four years, is still much different than the Fox News opinion section.  Chris Wallace is in charge. And my prediction is that Fox News, just like they did with Arizona, will do the responsible and truthful thing and make that call . . . today. 


  • Junior is a clear and present danger to the United States. 

  • If you think that these remaining battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, etc. have been doing a horrible job of getting the votes counted, you're wrong. For example, did you know that Texas is at 96%, Florida is at 95% and California is only at 77%.  But you don't hear about that because the margin of victory is so large that those states can be safely "called." 
  • Speaking of votes being counted, Biden took the lead in Tarrant County yesterday 403,698 to 403,271. Despite others proclaiming "Tarrant has turned Blue!", I disagree. And my proof is the results for races down the ballot, specifically judges. Let's face it, no one knows who to vote for when you get down that far and a voter is only going to do one thing: Default to their party of Republican or Democrat. In those judgeships in Tarrant, they all had consistent numbers of 53% for the Republican judge and 46% for the Democrat.  That's not by coincidence. That is straight party voting without the straight party button. And, as a result, Tarrant County for now still leans Red. Here are just four random judicial race results:

  • Ken Paxton, who is always in trouble, is in bigger trouble.  Go to the link if interested. 
  • Texas hospitalizations: +82

  • Time that has passed since the Wise County Sheriff's Office has failed to solve the murder of Lauren Whitener at Lake Bridgeport: 1 year, 4 months, 1 day.
  • Messenger: Above the Fold


at 8:38 AM

11.05.2020

Random Thursday Morning Thoughts

 

  • Texas hospitalizations: -64. During the surge in the summer, we would never get these random negative days. The curve is going to be so much flatter this time. That being said,  Wise County schools seem to be getting hit quite a bit right now.

  • A small fire at McCarroll Middle School in Decatur has closed the campus today. As with 99% of all fires, "the cause of it is still under investigation." Ands that never really changes. 
  • Still a tiny bit of drama in the presidential election but, as the most trusted in man in weather and political prognostication, I'm telling you it's over. Arizona might/possibly/could be slipping away from Biden, but Pennsylvania -- which is headed towards Biden with 11% of the votes still to be counted -- should flip in his favor this morning after tons of ballots from the Philadelphia area are counted. Once Pennsylvania goes for Biden, it's a done deal regardless of what happens in Arizona. And I'm not that concerned about Arizona. (After all, Fox News promised me on Tuesday night it would go to Biden.) 
    (First update this morning was at 8:08 a.m. and decreased deficit by over 10,000 )

  • What's happening in Pennsylvania shouldn't come as a shock. I'm not talking about the ultimate result -- no one had strong convictions about that -- I mean the fact that it would start in Trump's favor and then moved towards Biden. The question was always going to be how much. Like I said yesterday, it's all because the state didn't count mail-in ballots until after the polls closed. And everyone told us this would happen. Bernie Sanders prediction on Jimmy Fallon's show was amazingly spot on. And 538 wrote about it last week. 

  • Georgia, for what it's worth, will come down to the wire. Trump's lead has now shrunk to 18,540 votes, but there's only 4% left to be counted. A Biden win makes everything else irrelevant. I'm not ruling that out. I think they will have a big update at 10:00 CST. 

  • After watching footage of the workers do it, I think we can all agree that the job of opening up mail-in ballots looks like an absolute beating. 
  • The various legal challenges yesterday by the Trump campaign are silly and not a good look. They are going nowhere. And when you bring in as your point men your second favorite son and a guy who was just fooled by a fake Kazakhstan teenage reporter, it's a bad omen. 
    "Do you think we're stupid? Do you think we're fools?" - Rudy

  • Speaking of not a good look, don't do this. 


  • Or this. 

  • Is there a chance that Trump could still pull this off? Mathematically, yes. And you can't rule out the impact of their new back up plan from Trump's press secretary:

  • But that's a better plan than this guy had yesterday. (It's worth a watch if you haven't seen it.)
  • And they do mean "impassioned." Or it could be a dance club hit if someone would put it to music. Watch. (Bonus fun is just to watch a guy stroll across in the background from time to time.)  Edit: Someone put it to music. Not bad. 

  • A reminder that having a joint in Texas subjects you to up to 180 days in county jail and a $2,000 fine. 

  • Messenger: Above the Fold (I forgot yesterday.)



at 8:32 AM

11.04.2020

Random Wednesday Morning Thoughts


  • I've got hot sports opinions about last night but, as the hardest working man in show business, let's get you up to date . . . 
  • Here's what we know at 8:32 a.m. 
    • It appears the presidential race is down to three states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those votes are still being counted. 
    • For Biden to win, he needs two of the three. 
    • If you went to bed thinking Trump won all three of them, I've got some news for you.  Trump's leads in two of three are now gone. 
    • At this moment . . . 
      • Michigan: With 90% of the vote in, it just moved to Biden 20 minutes ago. He leads by 11,946 votes. This is the state to watch this morning.   Its Secretary of State said an hour ago that we will know Michigan's results today. 
      • Wisconsin: 97% is in and Biden is leading by 20,697. It's been trending towards Biden all night.
      • Pennsylvania: Only 75% is in and Trump is leading by 618,840. The counting is slow. From here on out, the absentee ballots (1.4 million of them to be counted!) will cut into that lead. We won't know the results until Friday. Despite Trump's lead, it could end up being a toss-up right now. And the state might end up not mattering at all. 
  • Those links will give you updated information.  This is all so insane. And who knew the Big 10 would decide it all?  
  • What do I comfortably think?: Joe Biden is the next President of the United States of America. 
  • Why has Biden gained in those three states since you went to bed? This is important: In-person votes were counted first in those states (which leaned towards Trump) and the absentee ballots are being counted now (leans towards Biden.) Understand that the exact opposite occurred in North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia last evening where absentee ballots were counted first. Biden jumped out to an early lead and then Trump kept eating into those leads and came in for the win later when in-person votes were counted. 
  • Trump knew in the middle of the night that trouble was brewing. What he did what was predicted: 

  • Man, Trump got mad when Fox News was the first network to call Arizona for Biden last night. (Other than the AP, no other news organization has gone that far even this morning, but it looks to be safely Biden's.) Arizona, in the end, might end up being the biggest blow to Trump's re-election campaign. He probably wants to rethink that John McCain bashing right about now. 
  • There are two wild cards out there: Georgia and Nevada. Especially Georgia. 
    • In Georgia, it looked like Trump was going to win it (and he still is winning it) with 92% of the vote in.  But all during the night, Trump's lead has been shrinking. It's now down to 103,760. And based upon where the outstanding ballots are from, the New York Times thinks Biden will catch Trump. Make no mistake, Georgia is a toss up right now. If Biden wins Georgia, he only needs one of the states of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania. 

    • On the other hand, everyone assumed from the start that Nevada would go to Biden. It's a heck of a lot closer than everyone thought. The only thing left are mail-in ballots. 

  • Quick thoughts even if Biden wins:
    • I thought if Trump lost that the Republican Party would distance themselves from him like nobody's business. It's just the opposite. He's the new Reagan. A crazy version of Reagan, but the new Reagan nevertheless. 
    • If you were a Republican Senator or Representative who embraced Trump, you did exactly the right thing. You won re-election. The Republicans held onto the Senate and picked up a couple of seats in the House. 
    • I'm stunned the Trump did as well as he did. There is a serious, serious divide in this country. I knew it was bad, but it's worse than I thought. 
  • Wise County: You boys didn't disappoint. Trump won by 83.92%. Last time is was 83.84%.  The consistency is amazing. 
  • I was right about Texas not turning Blue. I predicted Trump 51% to 47%.  

  • I was absolutely wrong about Democrats taking the Texas House in the legislature. 
  • One of the most confounding things is that Texas Hispanics didn't overwhelming vote for Biden. It's jaw-dropping, and this is a major political story. Look at Starr County where Hillary won by 60% in 2016:  

  • I was expecting Tarrant County to turn Blue but that didn't happen.  All the down ballot Republicans won 53% to 47% so all their judges are safe.  But look at the presidential race: 

  • Races I was watching:
    • Colin Allred won.

    • Jeff Leach, my nemesis, won.

    • In the "clock boy" race:

    • I forgot to mention Wendy Davis yesterday. 

  • Oh, yeah: Texas hospitalizations: +166. Contrary to Facebook, it ain't going away because of today's date. 



at 8:32 AM

11.03.2020

Random Tuesday Morning Thoughts

 

  • Tonight: "It's the Season Finale of America."
    (Ok, maybe I'm a little worked up this morning.)

  • Texas Hospitalizations: +79.

  • Trump made one last appeal to the nation this morning on Fox and Friends. 

  • Things I'm interested in (and some predictions) other than the presidential race: 
    • The 12 contested judicial races in Tarrant County. After the primaries, I spent several bullet points predicting an ill wind was blowing for Republicans there. And if one goes, they all will probably all go. 
    • Whether phony Jeff Leach loses his Texas House seat in Collin County. (He's just a personal nemeses who I picked out of nowhere.)
      "You got dope in that truck, pretty boy?"

    • Also in Collin County, how bad Colin Allred beats Genevieve Collins in their Congressional race. 

    • Whether Islamophobic Beth Van Duyne loses in her bid to get to Congress. (Any of you remember "Clock Boy"?)

    • If Trump carries Wise County by more than the 83.84% he did last time. (I'm still amazed by that number. I mean, I know you people very well, but sheesh.) 
    • Whether Democrats take the Texas State House. There's a real possibility of this happening. That's probably the biggest story no one is paying attention to. 
    • Whether there is a Blue Wave in Denton County.  I think something really weird is going on next door. 
    • The margin of victory of Cornyn over Hegar. I don't think that one is close. 
  • I'm voting for Lady Gaga's shoes. 

  • Presidential Predictions/Thoughts:
    • I think we will know who wins by 2:00 a.m. There will not be a long drawn out fight in the courts. There might be threats of lawsuits, but nothing substantive. 
    • Florida doesn't wait until the polls close to count its early votes and will release them when  the polls close. If that shows Biden clearly winning Florida, the entire presidential race can be called by 9:00 p.m. If Biden wins Florida, it's over. 
    • I don't think there will be a clear winner of Florida by 9:00 p.m. 
    • I don't think Biden wins Texas. We forget that Trump beat Hillary 52% to 43% in 2016. I'll call it Trump 51% to Biden's 47%.  Texas turning Blue will happen soon but that day is not today.
    • But if Biden wins Texas, it is the story tomorrow. Heck, it would decide the entire next generation of presidential races in one single swoop. 
    • I don't know what the combination of states it will be, but the Official Liberally Lean Triple Play Take-It-To-The-Bank Bet-The-House prediction: It's Biden over Trump. 
    • This isn't a race of the Pro-Biden vote vs. the Pro-Trump vote. It is the Anti-Trump vote vs. the Trump vote.  And I think the Anti-Trump vote comes out with a vengeance. 
    • Remember four years ago when I tried to get a guy to bet me $20,000 that Hillary would beat Trump? Yep, me too. 
  • If you really like polling and predictions for this presidential race, go to this page on fivethirtyeight.com especially if you are on desktop/laptop where you can hover your mouse over various things. It is so cool. 

  • In all of Texas, there are only three contested DA races on the ballot today. 
  • I had a traumatic dental issue this morning. Let's just say: (1) I'm glad wearing a mask is acceptable, and (2) Right now I look like a certain boxer from back in the day. 
    "BARRY!"

  • If you haven't voted, go ahead and do it for if no other reason than this: It feels good. 
  • The Lincoln Project tries to bring it home . . . 

  • "'Good luck. We're all counting on you.' - Airplane (1980)"  -- Liberally Lean (2020)



at 8:30 AM
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